On Feb. 18 and 19, United Nations Secretary-Normal Antonio Guterres convened a gathering in Doha, Qatar, to debate the “evolving state of affairs” in Afghanistan and future engagement with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The Taliban declined an invite to the assembly after the U.N. refused their situations, together with recognizing the Taliban because the legit authorities of Afghanistan.
Guterres reported that the attendees’ “creation of a contact group with a extra restricted variety of states capable of have a extra coordinated method within the engagement with the de facto authorities” would possibly embrace “the P-5 with a gaggle of neighboring international locations and a gaggle of related donors.” Guterres mentioned he’s beginning consultations on the appointment of a particular envoy “to coordinate engagement between Kabul and the worldwide neighborhood.”
The Taliban rejected the necessity for a particular envoy, however Pakistan supported it and specified the envoy have to be a “Muslim, skilled diplomat, and from the area.”
Although the West is fastened on the difficulty of Afghan ladies and women, the world wants to interact with the Islamic Emirate on different points, together with water rights, migration, narcotics trafficking and counterterrorism. In lots of situations, neighbors are already speaking on to the emirate, reminiscent of Tashkent’s low-key discussions with Kabul over rights to the water of the Amu Darya, which rises within the Pamir Mountains.
Different international locations will even choose to deal instantly with Kabul. China just lately appointed a brand new ambassador to the emirate; Russia will proceed its engagement with Kabul; and the Central Asian republics, Iran and Pakistan, as neighboring international locations, is not going to really feel the necessity to use the workplaces of the envoys, although will probably be helpful if it may “me-too” their present positions.
The envoy’s job could also be “selling dialogue between the extremist group and exiled opposition political figures” — that’s, the fellows the Taliban defeated regardless of America’s two-decade, $2 trillion sponsorship. Actually, the Taliban and atypical Afghans are involved that energy sharing will entail the return of the warlords and corrupt officers of the ousted Islamic Republic, in keeping with Obaidullah Baheer of the American College in Afghanistan. If this contains warlords and former Islamic Republic officers, the Taliban’s job will likely be made a lot simpler.
On the difficulty of girls and women, the Taliban just lately permitted feminine highschool graduates to enroll in state-run medical institutes for the brand new educational 12 months starting in March, displaying that change will come on the Taliban’s tempo and would be the results of negotiations between the capital, Kabul and Kandahar, the bottom of the hard-liners.
The appearing inside minister, Sirajuddin Haqqani, and Mullah Yaqoob, appearing protection minister, just lately warned Hibatullah Akhundzada, Afghanistan’s supreme chief, that reforms have to be rapidly forthcoming or else there can be penalties. The chance to separate the Taliban between reformers like Haqqani and Yaqoob and hardline chief Akhundzada could also be tempting to Washington, however fostering a civil conflict will injury Central and South Asia and show conclusively that Washington is humiliated and spiteful, not affected person and constructive.
The envoy might discover the going simpler if he joins fingers with the Group of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). The OIC has an motion plan that addresses the participation of girls in all areas of public life; in 2023 the group introduced, “The [OIC] Secretary-Normal additionally affirmed the OIC’s willpower to proceed constructive dialogue to empower Afghan ladies and assure their proper to entry training in any respect ranges and take part in public life.” The OIC participated within the U.N.’s Doha assembly on Afghanistan.
The OIC can tackle Afghan ladies’s rights in an Islamic context and should make higher progress than Western governments, which the Taliban take into account “the fellows we defeated.” With the OIC within the lead, it and the U.N. could possibly persuade the Taliban hardliners that ladies’s rights and training is an Islamic advantage by highlighting ladies’s contributions to the rising economies of Indonesia and Malaysia, however with out taking sides within the Kabul-Kandahar stress.
As to the envoy, although Pakistan wish to fill that function, fraying ties between Pakistan and the Taliban might restrict his effectiveness. A greater candidate can be from Central Asia, which has diplomats skilled in coping with the Taliban, or Turkey, the one NATO member with a diplomatic presence in Kabul.
Uzbekistan has strongly supported the Trans-Afghan railway and just lately secured Qatar’s monetary help for the challenge. In 2018, Tashkent publicly inspired the Taliban to start out peace negotiations with the Afghan authorities, and it just lately supplied technical help to the emirate’s Qosh Tepe Canal and warned the Taliban of the potential for leaks. (The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation discovered that every greenback spent on canal upkeep saves ten to 12 {dollars} of water.) And the Uzbeks have been proper: in December 2023, the canal partitions apparently failed and spilled sufficient water to type a nine-kilometer lake within the desert.
Turkey by no means lower off relations with Afghanistan, and has elevated engagement since August 2021. Ankara has hosted visits by senior Taliban officers and supplied emergency help to the emirate; it additionally inspired an inclusive authorities in Kabul, and training for ladies. In 2022, Turkey accomplished the second part of the Kajaki dam hydropower challenge. Ankara has additionally maintained commerce hyperlinks with the emirate (2022 exports have been just below $270 million.)
The envoy should battle to get on the Taliban overseas minister’s calendar. Seventeen international locations keep embassies in Kabul, the newest being Azerbaijan, which formally opened its embassy on Feb. 15. And, on Jan. 29, the emirate convened a convention in Kabul attended by representatives of 11 international locations, together with Russia, India, China, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The convention underlined the truth that, whereas the U.S. and Europe are staying away, Afghanistan’s neighbors are pragmatically in search of to interact the emirate.
Profitable engagement with the Islamic Emirate will likely be a gaggle effort and, if the U.N. envoy materializes, a positive path to success could also be by way of a partnership with the OIC.
James Durso (@james_durso) is a daily commentator on overseas coverage and nationwide safety issues. He served within the U.S. Navy for 20 years and has labored in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
