The concept that third events are spoilers is a baseless conspiracy principle on par with the Loch Ness monster, the person on the grassy knoll, and Pizzagate. However what if you happen to’re apprehensive, like many Democrats, that voting for a 3rd celebration just like the Greens’ Cornel West or, in the event that they ever get their act collectively, somebody from the No Labels Social gathering, would possibly enhance Donald Trump’s possibilities of returning to the White Home subsequent 12 months?
Given simply how weird, manic and exhausting Trump’s 4 years had been, I don’t blame you for being paranoid. It was a tough time for Democrats, extra so than beneath earlier Republican administrations. You’re traumatized. You’ll do nearly something to cease that from taking place once more!
(These of us on the Precise Left, not Democrats, discovered Trump’s time within the White Home extra amusing than dispiriting. Certain, he largely did stuff that we didn’t like. However so did Biden. Anyway, it’s not about us … not this week.)
Don’t fear.
We’ve acquired this.
It’s possible you’ll very nicely be capable of vote your precise conscience, assuming that you’ve one, and vote third celebration with out growing the chances of a Trump restoration by one iota. Take my hand and let’s discover the reply to your burning query: Are you able to safely vote third celebration?
First Filter: Do you reside in a swing state?
In 48 states, the victor within the widespread vote wins all that state’s electoral votes. Coupled with the truth that many states are lopsidedly both majority Republican or majority Democrat — by quite a bit — the electoral faculty’s winner-takes-all scheme ensures that votes for a small minority third celebration can solely (theoretically) change the result in a “swing state” the place the vote may go both method.
For instance, the Democratic presidential nominee, whether or not it’s Joe Biden or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or a rutabaga, will win New York, the place I reside. New Yorkers like me, due to this fact, can fortunately vote for Dr. West or my cat or No Labels safe within the data that they won’t be doing something to assist Trump.
There might be 4 swing states in 2024: Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. In case you are one of many 92% of American voters who do not reside in considered one of these 4 swing states, your vote is 100% assured to don’t have any impression in any way on the election. Vote, don’t vote, vote purple, vote blue, vote inexperienced, makes no distinction — your state will fall into both the purple or blue column. We already know which. Nothing can change the outcome.
Maine and Nebraska assign their electors proportionally. In considered one of these two low-population proportional-voting states, you would theoretically have an effect on the task of a single electoral vote. Nonetheless, the closest authentic electoral-college margin was 23 votes, in 1916. (Bush beat Gore by 5, however that adopted the Supreme Court docket’s awarding of Florida to Bush. The 1876 Tilden vs. Hayes race is formally listed as having been gained by one elector, however was determined by Congress in an insanely racist corrupt deal and is universally thought-about to have been illegitimate.)
For those who’re within the 8% of the inhabitants who reside in Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada, please proceed under.
If not, cease right here. CONGRATULATIONS! You may vote third celebration!
Second Filter: OK, you’re a resident of Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona or Nevada. What’s the doubtless margin between the Republican and Democratic votes for president?
Be aware this quantity.
Third Filter: As a resident of Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona or Nevada, what number of votes do you personally management?
In case you are a political energy dealer like Democratic Social gathering boss James Clyburn of South Carolina (however not truly him since South Carolina shouldn’t be a swing state), this quantity could also be excessive — within the 1000’s, and even a whole lot of 1000’s. In any other case, as a result of you’ll be able to solely management your one single vote once you go into the voting sales space, this quantity is one. Be aware your quantity.
Fourth Filter: Subtract the reply within the Third Filter Query from the reply within the Second Filter Query.
If the reply is bigger than zero, CONGRATULATIONS! You may vote third celebration!
If the reply is zero or much less, STOP. You might not vote for a 3rd celebration. As a Richard Daley-style political boss, or election machine hacker, or no matter scary particular person you’re that permits you to management zillions of different folks’s votes, it could be reckless and irresponsible so that you can solid your many votes for a 3rd celebration as a substitute of Joe Biden, since your swing state would possibly fall into the Trump column in consequence.
Ted Rall (Twitter: @tedrall), the political cartoonist, columnist and graphic novelist, co-hosts the left-vs-right DMZ America podcast with fellow cartoonist Scott Stantis.
