The demise of Aleksei A. Navalny, Russia’s principal opposition chief, has surprised Russian dissidents. However additionally it is spurring some hope that in its determined second, the opposition to President Vladimir V. Putin will be capable of unite like by no means earlier than.
Doing so will likely be a problem, given the usually aloof method of Mr. Navalny’s motion and the disparate meeting of different main opposition Russian figures: almost all of them in exile, and none along with his broad nationwide attraction.
Amongst them is Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a former oligarch who fell out with Mr. Putin, spent 10 years in jail and in London grew to become one in all his most outstanding opponents in exile. Then there may be Maxim Katz, a YouTube influencer and a former poker champion, who relies in Israel. There may be additionally Ilya Yashin, a longtime liberal politician who’s serving an eight-year sentence for publicizing Russian atrocities in Ukraine.
Past these figures who’re making an attempt to talk for the entire of Russia is a plethora of small antiwar teams centered on specific Russian areas, social points or ethnic minorities. A few of their calls for — like a reckoning with Russia’s imperial historical past — have clashed with the extra conservative place of Mr. Navalny, who had flirted with Russian nationalism so as to acquire a broader following.
Many function their very own YouTube channels, or use different social media like Telegram and podcasts, to beam their messages to thousands and thousands of viewers in Russia regardless of the Kremlin’s tightening its management of knowledge.
However looming over all of them will likely be Mr. Navalny, even after his demise in a Russian jail on Friday. As of Sunday, Mr. Navalny’s household has nonetheless not been in a position to find his physique, in accordance with his group.
Throughout his decades-long political profession, Mr. Navalny constructed an unmatched community of nationwide activist cells, social media channels and worldwide allies that made him the face of the opposition to Mr. Putin. A group of expert lieutenants transplanted this community into exile in Vilnius, Lithuania, after Mr. Navalny’s imprisonment in 2021.
“All of us within the opposition are at a sure loss about what we needs to be doing now and the way,” mentioned Mr. Katz, 39. “The whole opposition life has at all times revolved round Navalny, so now it’s utterly unclear what’s going to occur.”
A few of Mr. Navalny’s lieutenants, who’re principally of their 30s, have grow to be political gamers in their very own proper, with an opportunity to form the longer term course of the late chief’s motion. There’s Leonid Volkov, a skillful political organizer who had overseen Mr. Navalny’s community overseas and Kira Yarmysh, Mr. Navalny’s longtime press officer.
The demise of Mr. Navalny has additionally drawn consideration to his spouse, Yulia Navalnaya, 47. Her forceful speech to Western leaders in Munich after the information of her husband’s demise on Friday raised hypothesis that she may additionally have a political future.
Mr. Navalny’s group acknowledged on Saturday that their sprawling group would wish to restructure to adapt to their chief’s loss. However they gave little indication of what political route they may take, past vowing to hold on Mr. Navalny’s mission.
“We would wish to bear some modifications,” Ms. Yarmysh, the spokeswoman, advised an unbiased Russian information program on YouTube. “We’re all completely conscious of this.”
Ms. Yarmysh mentioned that she didn’t have a direct remark for this text. Two different senior aides to Mr. Navalny declined to remark.
Mr. Navalny and, later, his group have lengthy justified their determination to go it alone, saying that the effort and time spent managing political alliances could be higher spent immediately confronting Mr. Putin.
“I will likely be direct: Go to hell together with your coalitions,” Mr. Navalny wrote in response to Mr. Katz’s name for an electoral alliance on his web site final 12 months. “That is imitation of exercise. A pretend.”
Mr. Katz typically sparred with Mr. Navalny’s group on social media. Different dissidents mentioned such squabbles diluted the influence of the opposition and stored it divided.
Now, with Mr. Navalny’s demise, his allies, in addition to the broader Russian dissident motion, are searching for a brand new technique with which to oppose Mr. Putin.
From Vilnius, Mr. Navalny’s group runs on-line information channels, investigative retailers and teams of activists that proceed to set the agenda for the broader opposition motion.
Their principal software has been YouTube, the final main Western social media platform allowed contained in the nation, and the first supply of knowledge for thousands and thousands of Russians.
Mr. Navalny’s principal YouTube channel, maintained by his workers, has greater than six million subscribers. The group’s information channel, Common Politics, which was arrange after the invasion of Ukraine started in February 2022 to counter authorities propaganda, has greater than two million. Final 12 months, Common Politics elevated its broadcasts to about 30 hours per week and almost doubled its workers to 130.
Basically, broadcasts by Mr. Navalny’s group attempt to straddle a line between political campaigning and information, a format utilized by dozens of opposition politicians, civil society leaders and unbiased media teams which can be making an attempt to stay a part of the dialog in Russia from exile.
A YouTube channel run by Mr. Katz has attracted almost 10 million distinctive guests previously three months, in accordance with YouTube Analytics knowledge. Almost 60 % of them got here from inside Russia.
For his half, Mr. Khodorkovsky’s a lot decreased wealth nonetheless permits him to sponsor a community of on-line information retailers concentrating on completely different sectors of the Russian public.
Mr. Katz mentioned the success of a social media marketing campaign launched from overseas to assist a long-shot antiwar candidate, Boris B. Nadezhdin, accumulate the required signatures to run within the presidential election in March confirmed that it stays doable to create a political influence in Russia from exile. (The federal government-controlled electoral physique later challenged a few of these signatures, almost definitely ending Mr. Nadezhdin’s run.)
A report final 12 months by JX Fund, a analysis group centered on freedom of speech, estimated that Russian unbiased media reached 6 % to 9 % of Russia’s grownup inhabitants, a large quantity given the ubiquity of state propaganda and repression within the nation.
Some figures within the wider Russian opposition motion expressed cautious hope for a extra inclusive political alliance towards Mr. Putin that might stick with it Mr. Navalny’s legacy.
“I’ve at all times referred to as for a coalition as a result of, amongst different causes, I knew simply how susceptible particular person opposition leaders are,” Mr. Khodorkovsky mentioned. “A coalition is rather more steady as a system, as a result of if one individual is gone, others are left, and but different new ones seem.”
His view was shared by Maxim Reznik, a former regional lawmaker from St. Petersburg, Russia, who continues to work on native politics from exile in Vilnius.
“I’ve at all times thought that their isolationist place will not be the proper one,” Mr. Reznik mentioned about Mr. Navalny’s group. “Aleksei can’t be changed, however we’d like some mechanism of collaboration.”
The opposition’s preliminary response to Mr. Navalny’s demise has pointed within the route of better unity, at the least for now. A unifying trigger has centered round a voting initiative endorsed by Mr. Navalny on social media on Feb. 1, in one in all his final public statements.
The initiative, initially proposed by Mr. Reznik, calls on Russian voters to go to polling stations at midday on Election Day, a vote that Mr. Putin is all however sure to win.
Mr. Reznik mentioned the initiative, primarily a political flash mob, was the most secure approach to specific discontent in a rustic the place any protest dangers a jail time period.
“We need to present that the Emperor has no garments,” Mr. Reznik mentioned.
After Mr. Navalny’s demise, nearly all outstanding opposition figures had declared their help for the noon vote.
“This dragon, this beast, has destroyed everybody — it has killed our Lancelot, our hero. The query is now solely about us,” mentioned Mr. Reznik, referring to the Russian authorities. “Both we come out and present the world that Russians will not be slaves of the regime, or we don’t.”
“And I actually worry the second situation,” he added.
Ivan Nechepurenko, Neil MacFarquhar and Anton Troianovski contributed reporting. Oleg Matsnev contributed analysis.
