When the Common Workers have been discussing with President Vladimir Putin the timing of the Russian offensive to power the Kiev regime into capitulation, it has been agreed, understood, and repeated that the strategic reserves of the Ukrainian forces must be destroyed first, along with the provision strains for the weapons and ammunition crossing the border from the US and the NATO allies.
This course of, in addition they agreed, ought to take so long as required with least casualties on the Russian facet, as decided by navy intelligence. Additionally agreed and pre-conditional, there must be no repeat of the political intelligence failures of the Overseas Intelligence Service (SVR) which precipitated the failed particular forces operation referred to as the Battle of Antonov (Hostomel) Airport from February 24 to April 2, 2022.
Taking account of the errors made then by the SVR director, Sergei Naryshkin, and the following errors of navy officers round Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Common Workers has additionally accepted that their tactical operations should run least threat of Russian casualties by means of March 17, the ultimate day of the presidential election.
Reinforcing these preconditions for the timing of the Russian offensive, Common Winter and Common Persistence have joined the Stavka conferences.
This week navy sources imagine there was a turning level – on the Ukrainian battlefield, and on the Russian clock.
The day by day Protection Ministry briefing and bulletin from Moscow reported final Thursday, earlier than the Friday weekly abstract, that the Ukrainian KIA (killed in motion) for the earlier twenty-four hours totaled 795, with the ratio of offensive techniques to defence, 3 to three. On Monday, the KIA complete was 680, the ratio 4 to three. On Tuesday, KIA got here to 885, the ratio 5 to 1. The casualty fee is unusually excessive; the shift to offence is recognizably new, if not introduced.
The “Stavka Venture”, a navy briefing which is broadcast by Vladimir Soloviev, confirms the positional breakthroughs this week on a number of of the fronts or “instructions”, because the Protection Ministry calls them, alongside the Donbass line; click on to observe (in Russian).
In Boris Rozhin’s abstract of the Protection Ministry briefing supplies, revealed earlier than daybreak on Wednesday morning, the main Russian navy blogger (Colonel Cassad) identifies “small advances”, “slight actions”, some positional “successes”, different positional “counter-fighting”, and “no important progress but”. The adverb is navy speak for timing.
In response to a navy supply outdoors Russia, “the Russian breakthrough is starting to occur now. It’s being coordinated with strikes and raids alongside the northern border. The dedication of the ‘crack’ Ukrainian brigades on the expense of different sectors reveals how determined [General Valery] Zaluzhny is to plug the holes. He is aware of that the goal is the isolation of Kharkov, the institution of a demilitarized ‘buffer zone’, in addition to the event of a state of affairs whereby all Ukrainian forces east of the Dnieper are threatened with being reduce off… and he’s shortly operating out of ammunition, to not point out cannon fodder.”
“By the top of the winter,” the supply has added in a single day, “the Ukrainians will barely be capable to transfer alongside the roads they use to feed the entrance because of the Russian drone, missile, typical air, and artillery strikes. As soon as they will now not plug the gaps with mechanized items performing as fire-fighting brigades, it’s only a matter of time earlier than the massive breakthroughs and encirclements start. On the present burn fee of Ukrainian forces, I think about we’ll begin seeing Russian tanks with gasoline tanks fitted for prolonged vary showing and Russian airborne troops making air assaults within the Ukrainian rear inside weeks.”
In yesterday’s version of the Moscow safety evaluation platform Vzglyad, Yevgeny Krutikov, a number one Russian navy analyst with GRU service himself and GRU sources for his reporting since, revealed a report entitled “What does the offensive of Russian troops within the Kharkov area imply?” “Russia is creating a brand new strategic state of affairs within the Kharkov area,” Krutikov concluded, “threatening to dismember the Ukrainian defence as much as the Donetsk agglomeration.” A verbatim English translation of this piece follows.
Supply: https://vz.ru/
January 29, 2024 – 19:10.What does the offensive of Russian troops within the Kharkov area imply?
By Yevgeny Krutikov“The settlement of Tabayevka within the Kharkov area has been liberated,” the Russian Protection Ministry says. We aren’t simply going through the seize of a village: Russian troops at the moment are hacking into the contact strains, which haven’t budged for a yr. Russia is creating a brand new strategic state of affairs within the Kharkov area, threatening to dismember the Ukrainian defence as much as the Donetsk agglomeration.
First, Krakhmalnoye, then Tabayevka – Russian troops have superior within the Svatovo course (Kharkov area), pushing the enemy to a brand new line of defence (to the village of Peschanoye). Barely to the north, already near Kupyansk, the enemy’s positions are additionally step by step transferring to the west and southwest.
Alongside the way in which, forests are being cleared, which the VSU [Ukrainian Armed Forces] is popping into fortified areas, even giving them names (“Alligator” and “Woodpecker”). The enemy is dropping the outdated strains of trenches, the primary line of contact has been destroyed. One thing related is occurring straight close to Kupyansk, however there the superior fortified strains in Sinkovka are being held nonetheless by the VSU, although the positions on the flanks have step by step begun to sink.
At first look, we’re remoted episodes of positional warfare, for the reason that massive, iconic and recognizable geographical names don’t seem within the info releases. However this isn’t fairly true.
Firstly, even on this state of affairs as revealed to date, strategic threats come up for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for instance, within the doable drive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to the Oskol River which has far-reaching prospects. However, it’s nonetheless unattainable to foretell when this may change into doable in follow.
Secondly, the enemy has been demonstrating a systemic defence disaster within the Kupyansk course in the course of the previous week. The defence of Kupyansk has been below development by the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the reason that spring of final yr, when the choice was made in Kiev on a ‘counteroffensive’ within the southern course. New brigades with western armoured automobiles have been despatched to the southern part of the contact line, and Kupyansk and the world round it have been designated for defence with the remainder of their forces.
In Kiev, they have been satisfied that Russian troops have been forming an offensive group within the Kupyansk course, and so the VSU started to attend there for a frontal assault. Nevertheless, because of this, the Russian Military didn’t undertake something of the type on this space. As a substitute, the Ukrainian items have been step by step floor down by the Russian military in positional battles, whereas the Kupyansk group of the VSU needed to be replenished with no matter troops have been left.
Now Ukrainian sources are complaining that as a consequence, a mixture of strains has shaped within the sinkhole areas (that’s the identical Krakhmalnoye and Tabayevka). Into these strains the VSU has herded separate battalions from totally different items, with the consequence that unified administration and command have been misplaced, and the efficiency high quality of the troops has left a lot to be desired.
In consequence, the VSU is contemplating the potential of transferring the remnants of these forces which participated within the failed ‘counteroffensive”’ to Kupyansk from the southern course. Earlier than that, they’d been despatched in nice haste despatched to Avdeyevka.
However that is already a systemic drawback for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since there’s hassle within the southern sector. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have step by step regained a number of the positions which have been left in the course of the so-called counteroffensive, and these forces proceed to maneuver ahead. We’re even speaking about doable threats to Orekhov, a rearguard metropolis for the VSU, from which all of the communications and command of the ‘counteroffensive’ had been carried out.
Behind the defensive fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an open subject for tens of kilometres opens up on an entire group of web sites. Kiev’s navy reserves are step by step being squandered, and there’s virtually no human materiel left to plug the holes. Associated to those issues there are the panic campaigns in Kiev about complete mobilization.
There’s one other drawback: the attrition of officers. Western navy personnel can’t substitute this significant useful resource — they will solely be used to service technically difficult weapons programs corresponding to air defence or long-range artillery. Alongside the road of contact, international officers usually tend to intervene as a result of their ignorance of the language and misunderstanding of the mentality of the [Ukrainian] subordinates.
There are different elements weakening the Ukrainian defence, however they don’t seem to be straight associated to navy operations. For instance, the Western sponsors are actually involved in regards to the corruption of the Ukrainian management. The inspections and audits that are happening in Kiev on this concern proper now are stopping Ukraine from constructing new defensive strains swiftly sufficient.
One other non-military issue: political discord among the many numerous factions of the Ukrainian authorities. The premonition of defeat is triggering a drop in morale, not solely within the troops, but additionally within the elites.
All this typically creates a strategic alternative for Russia to significantly change the state of affairs on the road of contact.
Partial tactical successes should sooner or later flip into a significant breakthrough within the enemy’s defence. Furthermore, we’re speaking about such a breakthrough that won’t cease in simply two or three days on the subsequent defensive position, however will lead inevitably, exactly, to the collapse of the entrance. That is precisely what the efforts of the Russian Armed Forces at the moment are geared toward, probing for the weaknesses in Ukrainian defensive positions.
The liberation of Tabayevka is an instance of simply such an method. Eventually, the VSU won’t have time to create a brand new defensive position behind a selected settlement. After which we are going to see how the particular operation will break the present positional impasse.
