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A inventory market correction seems imminent after the S&P 500 rallied 21% over a interval of 14 weeks, in line with Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.
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Lee nonetheless maintains a bullish view on shares for 2024, however stated historical past suggests the market is about to achieve a short-term peak.
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“I feel we [the S&P 500] is likely to be approaching one thing shut to five,000, perhaps a bit of increased, after which I feel a drawdown follows,” Lee stated.
A inventory market correction seems imminent, in line with probably the most bullish fairness strategists on Wall Road.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee advised shoppers on Tuesday that after the S&P 500 surged 21% over a 14-week interval, a downturn is probably going throughout the subsequent few weeks.
“I feel we [the S&P 500] is likely to be approaching one thing shut to five,000, perhaps a bit of increased, after which I feel a drawdown follows,” Lee stated.
Lee checked out market historical past and located seven situations since 1927 when the S&P 500 rose 13 out of 14 weeks, because it simply did. In 4 of these seven situations, the inventory market peaked throughout the subsequent two weeks.
Lee stated an imminent market correction additionally is sensible as a result of it will mimic a inventory market buying and selling sample that final occurred throughout the bear market low in October 2022.
The inventory market jumped 20% for 16 weeks beginning in October 2022 earlier than it staged a 9% correction, after which it rallied 21% over a interval of 19 weeks earlier than it bought off by 11%. Provided that the S&P 500 has not too long ago risen by 21%, a drawdown wouldn’t be out of the atypical, in line with Lee.
Lee stated he expects a 7% decline to materialize, which might ship the S&P 500 to about 4,600 based mostly on present ranges.
As to what basic subject would drive such a decline, Lee stated the timing of the Federal Reserve’s rate of interest cuts may spark concern amongst buyers, particularly if the central financial institution waits too lengthy and the financial system begins to weaken.
Regardless of the short-term bearish outlook, Lee reiterated his bullish view on the inventory market in 2024, saying that the S&P 500 may in the end rise to a variety of between 5,200 and 5,400.
“In the end it is a good 12 months, we’re in a bull market,” Lee stated.
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