Donald Trump’s sturdy victory within the New Hampshire presidential major Tuesday most likely harm fellow Republican Steve Garvey in California’s U.S. Senate race.
I’ll clarify that in a bit.
However first, right here’s one other political paradox: The Republican Senate underdog was helped by his three main Democratic opponents in a televised debate Monday evening. That’s as a result of they ganged up on him and flailed away.
Garvey wants to draw sufficient Republican votes in California’s March 5 major to complete second and qualify for the November normal election poll. And hardly something unites a Republican candidate and the celebration trustworthy greater than Democrats attacking that candidate.
Trump has proved that.
If Democrats don’t like Garvey, he should be the suitable candidate for the job, within the minds of many Republican voters.
Now again to New Hampshire.
What Garvey wanted was a Trump defeat — or a minimum of his remaining rival, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, ending an in depth sufficient second so she’d have some momentum going into her residence state major on Feb. 24.
South Carolina is robust Trump territory. An enormous win for him there could be seen as the previous president virtually nailing down the Republican renomination. That might be dangerous information for Garvey.
The previous Los Angeles Dodger and San Diego Padre first baseman wants the California major to be seen as aggressive to encourage a big Republican vote. There’ll be much less incentive to forged ballots if the GOP nomination is seen as a executed deal.
Republican voters are outnumbered 2 to 1 by Democrats in California. The highest two vote-getters amongst Senate candidates will advance to the November runoff, no matter their celebration. So, Garvey’s hopes of ending No. 2 — neglect about No. 1 — depend upon a giant GOP turnout.
“If it have been fairly aggressive right here, that will assist Republican turnout. If it’s throughout, that’s not good for Garvey,” says veteran Democratic political guide Invoice Carrick, who ran the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s California campaigns. It’s Feinstein’s outdated seat that the present candidates are attempting to seize.
Democratic Rep. Adam B. Schiff of Burbank is the front-runner, primarily based on polling. And he most likely solidified that No. 1 place within the debate along with his regular efficiency.
Garvey and Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine are operating neck-and-neck for the No. 2 spot, with Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) not far behind. There are many undecided voters.
The previous main league all-star received assist from his Democratic opponents within the debate.
“By the point the three Democrats received via with him, they have been making his case to Republican voters,” says Dan Schnur, who teaches political communications at USC and UC Berkeley and is a former GOP operative. “Each time they’re criticizing Garvey, they’re sending a message to Republicans to consolidate behind him.”
“There’s no approach he’s going to be a senator,” Schnur provides. “However he was a very powerful particular person on the stage. Porter and Lee each suppose they will beat Schiff head-on in November. But when Garvey finishes second they’ll by no means get the possibility.
“There’s nothing Schiff would love greater than to run towards Garvey.”
No Republican has received a statewide race in California since 2006.
Republican guide Rob Stutzman, who isn’t concerned within the Senate race, says Garvey additionally was helped by post-debate criticism within the information media for not taking clear stands on some points and hedging on whether or not he’ll help Trump.
“The media beating up on Garvey for not having well-defined positions doesn’t harm him with Republican voters,” Stutzman advised me. “Republican voters don’t react properly to the media critiquing a Republican.
“They’ll be content material to have a high-profile Republican run for the Senate and ship out the Republican message in November. We haven’t had that since [former Hewlett-Packard Chief Executive] Carly Fiorina ran in 2010.”
Look, I believe Garvey will get a bum rap for not stating firmly whether or not he’ll vote for Trump. He already has twice. And possibly will once more. “Each occasions, he was the most effective particular person for the job,” he mentioned throughout the debate.
However Garvey refused to commit on this election.
“As soon as a Dodger, at all times as Dodger,” Porter asserted in one of many evening’s higher strains. “Mr. Garvey, this isn’t the minor leagues. Who will you vote for?”
“When the time comes,” Garvey responded, “I’ll have a look at the 2 opponents, I’ll decide what they did and at the moment I’ll make my alternative.”
I see this as a glass half full. Garvey deserves credit score from Democrats for exhibiting some guts. He’s a uncommon Republican candidate who hasn’t fallen into an extended line to kiss Trump’s ring. Not less than not but.
Truly, not committing to the GOP idol might harm him amongst Trump worshipers.
“So long as he’s not criticizing Trump, he’ll be OK with Republican voters,” Stutzman says. “I used to be impressed that he is perhaps taking probably the most brave place of any Republican Senate candidate in the US.”
However he was lambasted by Democrats for vagueness.
“Steve Garvey didn’t get to first base,” former state Atty. Gen. Invoice Lockyer advised me. “He’s a pleasant man who’s approach over his head each in coverage and politics.”
“Horrible,” Carrick says. “No substance in any way.”
However Schnur says “he got here throughout as a nonthreatening Republican.”
It was a very good debate, hosted by Fox 11 Information and Politico at USC. Higher than most and undoubtedly superior to the latest Republican presidential debates.
Garvey was the controversy winner — not primarily based on efficiency, however political dynamics — and a loser in New Hampshire.
