Now, simply because it’s simple in charge Mr. Biden’s age for his political woes doesn’t make it so. There’s little question that voters have considerations, nevertheless it’s very arduous to determine how a lot assist it’s costing Mr. Biden within the polls. We will’t know, as an example, what his approval ranking can be if he had been 10 or 20 years youthful. Perhaps it will be practically as low, due to the border, the Center East, earlier inflation, lingering resentments and anxieties after the pandemic — alongside the corroding results of partisan polarization.
Why can’t we all know? The age concern shouldn’t be just like the financial system, wherein simply measurable information helps us make sense of its import. We all know 10 p.c inflation or 10 p.c unemployment might be ample to value a president re-election. We’ve seen it earlier than, based mostly on many years of arduous information. In distinction, the severity of Mr. Biden’s age downside is sort of solely up for debate. That notion is usually subjective — based mostly on how he seems and sounds, not merely based mostly on the very fact of his being 81. (Mr. Trump is 77.)
Superficial and subjective points like these are arduous to investigate, as evidenced by the very huge vary of responses to Mr. Biden’s information convention on Thursday. Even a query so simple as “why do voters assume Biden is just too previous, however not Mr. Trump?” is tough to reply. It’s clear voters imagine so, however the possible clarification is simply as superficial and subjective as the sentiments of particular person voters. Subjective, after all, doesn’t imply unimportant. Even probably the most superficial components like look or voice depth can play a robust position in vote selection. Mr. Biden appears to have crossed an invisible line demarking whether or not a candidate isn’t simply previous however “too” previous within the view of many citizens; Mr. Trump has not.
What’s extra, the questions on Mr. Biden’s age are nearly solely with out precedent within the period of contemporary elections. There has by no means been a president who has confronted this stage of concern about his age — not even Ronald Reagan in 1984, who was eight years youthful than Mr. Biden this cycle. That’s precisely why it’s simple to think about how considerations about his age is likely to be politically potent. Nevertheless it additionally means we’ve by no means noticed the political impact of one thing like this earlier than.
Virtually each election options one thing unprecedented, with the potential to shake up the standard patterns of politics. Within the final 4 cycles alone, we’ve witnessed the primary Black presidential major-party nominee, the primary feminine such nominee, the primary with out navy or elected expertise, the primary fashionable election amid a pandemic, and so forth. In all of those circumstances, pundits and analysts speculated — very moderately — about whether or not these novel candidates or circumstances may yield an sudden outcome.
