Ukraine is engaged in a determined struggle to carry again the Russian onslaught.
Russian forces captured the longtime Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka earlier than daybreak on Saturday, Moscow’s first main battlefield acquire because it took Bakhmut final Might.
However throughout all the 600-mile lengthy entrance, Ukraine is brief on ammunition with out renewed American navy help, and it’s struggling to replenish its personal depleted forces after two years of brutal preventing.
Russia’s assault has break up into 5 main traces of assault, spanning cities and cities throughout a lot of the entrance in japanese and southern Ukraine. Right here is the standing of Russia’s offensive in 5 important battles:
1. Avdiivka
Russia captured a longtime Ukrainian stronghold.
The now-destroyed metropolis of Avdiivka covers just some 12 sq. miles. However for the higher a part of a decade it carved a bulge within the entrance line that undermined important Russian logistical operations. It sits just a few miles from town of Donetsk, which Russia has occupied since 2014.
In latest weeks, Russian forces have breached a important provide line and threatened to encircle Ukrainian troopers. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the top of Ukraine’s forces within the south, mentioned that Ukraine had no selection however to withdraw.
“In a state of affairs the place the enemy is advancing on the corpses of their very own troopers with a 10-to-1 shell benefit, below fixed bombardment, that is the one right resolution,” he mentioned in an announcement.
It’s not clear how far the Russians may be capable to push this struggle past Avdiivka, or how properly the Ukrainians have constructed their subsequent traces of protection. However the subsequent main inhabitants facilities, dwelling to tens of hundreds of civilians, are solely about 35 miles to the west.
Roughly 50,000 Russian troopers have been devoted to the struggle for Avdiivka on this route, though the numbers fluctuated. Tens of hundreds of Russians have been killed or wounded, in keeping with Western and Ukrainian officers, however Russia has steadily replenished their ranks, together with utilizing convicts to hitch the preventing.
Even when the traces stabilize after the Russians take town, its fall permits the Russian navy to maneuver troops and tools extra effectively behind the road because it presses in different instructions.
Learn extra: Dropping Floor, Ukraine Seeks New Positions Round Avdiivka, Feb. 15
2. Marinka
A destroyed city is now a base for Russian assaults.
By final month, Russian forces had lastly cleared out the final Ukrainian defenders of Marinka, one other longtime frontline city.
There’s little or no left of Marinka after two years of Russian bombardments and battles. However its seize has allowed the Russians to show their consideration to the south and one other important Ukrainian stronghold, Vuhledar.
Final 12 months, the Russians repeatedly tried to assault Vuhledar from the south and suffered catastrophic losses, together with a devastating defeat in one of many largest tank battles of the warfare.
However with Marinka below management, the Russians are attacking Vuhledar from the north. They’re at the moment advancing by means of the village of Novomykhailivka, which is about 13 miles to the northeast.
It’s not clear what number of forces the Russians have amassed on this route, however Ukrainian officers have mentioned Russia has stored round 40,000 within the close by Mariupol space to be deployed for assaults from the south.
Troopers preventing within the Vuhledar space mentioned that the autumn of Avdiivka, 55 miles to the northeast, would doubtless liberate Russian forces to step up assaults from the north.
Learn extra: A Trophy in Ruins: Proof Grows That Russia Controls Marinka, Jan. 4
3. Robotyne
Russia is in search of to reverse Ukraine’s largest beneficial properties final 12 months.
When Ukraine’s failed summer season counteroffensive culminated final 12 months, its forces had managed to advance solely about ten miles deep into the southern entrance, reaching simply past a tiny village, Robotyne.
Russia now seems decided to win again what it misplaced.
The Russian navy has extra troops focused on this entrance than on the Avdiivka entrance, Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesman for Ukrainian troopers preventing within the south, mentioned this week.
“It appears that evidently the Russians have set a objective to achieve some success there by storming in, simply as they’re attempting to do in Avdiivka,” he mentioned.
Learn extra: Russia Retakes Some Land Arduous Gained by Ukraine Throughout Counteroffensive, Dec. 28
4. Kreminna
Russia is pushing from Kreminna to reclaim cities within the northeast it misplaced to Ukraine in late 2022.
Ever because the Russians had been pushed out of occupied territories in northeastern Ukraine greater than a 12 months in the past — dropping management over greater than 500 settlements unfold over 11,000 sq. kilometers — they’ve been preventing to attempt to take it again.
Final 12 months, little territory modified fingers, regardless of intense preventing within the forest belts alongside the entrance right here. Now, Russia is beginning to transfer ahead once more, albeit slowly within the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance.
Russian forces are pushing in two instructions from town of Kreminna: towards the battered metropolis of Kupiansk to the north, and towards Lyman, 80 miles to the south. Russia has maintained a complete drive of round 110,000 troops within the space for months, regardless of losses, Illia Yevlash, a spokesman for the navy within the space, instructed reporters earlier this month.
Learn extra: Ukraine and Russia Battle for a Gateway Metropolis within the East, Dec. 27
5. Bakhmut
Russia has regained the momentum, and a serious Ukrainian metropolis may come into artillery vary.
Russia destroyed after which seized town of Bakhmut in Might, its final vital territorial acquire on the battlefield earlier than advancing on Avdiivka this week. By the point the Russians took Bakhmut, their forces had been exhausted, and the Wagner mercenary group that led the struggle was in open rebel in opposition to the Russian ministry of protection.
Ukrainian hopes to use the disarray to counterattack across the flanks of town largely stalled. Now, it’s the Russians who’ve the initiative.
Normal Oleksandr Syrsky, the newly appointed commander of Ukrainian forces, mentioned lately that the Russians are decided to interrupt by means of their defenses round Chasiv Yar, which might give them management of commanding heights within the space and expose town of Kramatorsk to elevated artillery hearth. Some 62,000 Russian troopers are on the bottom within the Bakhmut route, in keeping with Ukrainian estimates.
“The state of affairs is tense, requiring fixed monitoring of the general state of affairs and immediate decision-making on the bottom,” Gen. Syrsky mentioned in an announcement earlier this month.
Learn extra: Why Bakhmut? It’s a Query as Outdated as Conflict., Might 5, 2023
