That is how the conflict within the Ukraine doesn’t finish, not for the Germans and the Poles.
As long as they will, they plan to steal or destroy Russian property west of what was once Kievan Ukraine; and mobilize the US navy bases in each international locations to bolster and defend their larcenies.
The German political celebration which guarantees to proceed this conflict for the employment of German employees and the enrichment of German executives and shareholders will win the subsequent election, changing the Social Democratic Celebration and the Greens because the celebration of conflict.
The post-Ukraine technique of the Stavka begins right here — Ha Берлин! To Berlin!
On Friday final, the Russian language version of the German state medium Deutsche Welle (DW) revealed a report of German and Polish authorities plans for the expropriation of PCK, the Rosneft crude oil refinery at Schwedt in northern Germany, and the Rosneft community of working property in Germany, Poland, and Austria.
The German property of Rosneft, the Russian state oil manufacturing firm below worldwide sanctions, had been positioned below what the German authorities known as “fiduciary administration” by an “unbiased” state regulator in September 2022. This was introduced on the time as a non permanent association to adjust to the sanctions, renewable each six months, however leaving undisturbed the Russian possession of the property. This scheme was renewed at six month-to-month intervals, as Rosneft has reported.
There was nothing unbiased concerning the BNA or what it has been doing each six months. BNA stands for the Federal Community Company — Bundesnetzagentur für Elektrizität, Gasoline, Telekommunikation, Publish und Eisenbahnen. It claims to be “an unbiased larger federal authority with its foremost workplace in Bonn working inside the scope of enterprise of the Federal Ministry for Financial Affairs and Local weather Motion (BMWK) and the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV). We have now been answerable for Germany’s important electrical energy, fuel, telecommunications and postal infrastructures for over 20 years.”
“Inside the scope of” is a German fig leaf for “below management”.
“Our process,” BNA says, is “to make sure truthful and non-discriminatory competitors for all market contributors. Our success and our experience in regulation led to the power and rail sectors additionally being positioned below our accountability.”
This was not what the federal government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz supposed when it commenced its takeover of Rosneft and assigned BNA the function of camp guard. BNA described what it was doing to “safeguard safety of provide in Germany…on the premise of the Power Safety of Provide Act (part 17 EnSiG) till 15 March 2023. This foundation allows the fiduciary to take motion to maintain the enterprise working in accordance with its significance for the functioning of society within the power sector. The fiduciary administration could also be prolonged below sure circumstances… The choice to introduce fiduciary administration was prompted by…by the sanctions imposed on Russia…The fiduciary administration implies that the unique proprietor not has authority to problem directions.”
MAP OF ROSNEFT’S MAIN ASSETS IN GERMANY
Supply: https://www.rosneft.de/
In accordance with BNA’s first “letter of consolation” at its takeover, “RDG has stakes in PCK Raffinerie GmbH (PCK) in Schwedt/Oder, Bayernoil Raffineriegesellschaft mbH (Bayernoil), Mineralölraffinerie Oberrhein GmbH & Co. KG (MiRO) and in varied oil pipelines in Germany (Deutsche Transalpine Oelleitung GmbH), Austria (Transalpine Ölleitung in Österreich GmbH), Italy (Soc IT per I’Oléodotto Transalpino SpA) and France (Société du pipeline Sud-Européen SA). RDG has crude oil processed within the refineries PCK in Schwedt, MiRO in Karlsruhe and Bayernoil in Ingolstadt and can be answerable for distribution of the petroleum merchandise produced within the refineries according to its stake in every refinery and the crude oil processed there. RNRM [Rosneft Refining & Marketing GmbH] helps RDG [Rosneft Deutschland GmbH] as a service firm and holds shares in AET Raffineriebeteiligungsgesellschaft mbH, which in flip holds shares in PCK. RDG and its affiliate RNRM, collectively maintain a majority stake in PCK.”
“The enterprise actions of RDG and RNRM are of decisive significance for the functioning of society within the power sector and the sustaining of safety of provide. Owing to the scope of its oil transactions and its varied stakes in refineries and pipelines, RDG is a central firm in Germany’s oil provide. The PCK refinery, which is operated collectively by RDG and RNRM, is among the largest refineries within the Federal Republic of Germany and ensures a primary provide of petroleum merchandise to the north-east of Germany and Berlin airport. RDG and RNRM thus fulfil key features which can be important for the safety of provide in Germany and Europe.”
Within the new report from Deutsche Welle, it’s now made clear that with the beginning of navy collapse of the Ukrainian and NATO forces east of the Dnieper River, and the election of the Donald Tusk coalition to manipulate Poland, a scheme of expropriation has been ready that may proceed the sanctions conflict in opposition to Russia for the foreseeable future.
“More and more probably”, the phrase with which this report by Andrei Gurkov leads, is future tense and never but a certainty. The controversy inside and out of doors the Berlin Chancellery is reported right here, concluding with the Scholz authorities spokesman saying it’s “inspecting the likelihood [of expropriation]. A call has not but been made.”
Rosneft has replied via its German legislation agency, Malmendier Authorized, which has ties to the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU) celebration and to Moscow. “Such an expropriation would signify a measure that will stay unprecedented within the historical past of the Federal Republic of Germany and would eternally harm funding safety…As a listed inventory company, Rosneft will take all measures to guard the rights of its shareholders.”
The Kremlin spokesman has introduced: “That is nothing else than the expropriation of another person’s property. These are steps that undermine the financial and authorized foundations of European states, these are steps that completely devalue the funding attractiveness of those international locations and have very deep penalties for individuals who make such choices. We don’t exclude something to guard our pursuits and to counter the unlawful steps that we’re speaking about.” Rosneft is already suing in Germany’s Constitutional Courtroom in opposition to the BNA trustee administration scheme.
The worth of the Rosneft property proposed for seizure is about $7 billion. The German newspaper Handelsblatt reported on February 9 that Rosneft chief government Igor Sechin had despatched a proper letter proposing that the German authorities purchase Rosneft out on the market value. Habeck’s ministry has denied receiving such a letter.
Translated verbatim from the Russian authentic, the next report explains the strategic political and business calculations in Berlin and Warsaw. The map and illustrations appeared within the DW publication. The image and caption of Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck in Warsaw on February 13, and the illustration and caption reporting the management purge at Orlen, the Polish oil firm, have been added.
Supply: https://www.dw.com/
February 16, 2024
Germany nationalizes Rosneft Deutschland, Poland will assist
by Andrei GurkovExpropriation of Rosneft’s German property is turning into more and more probably. Warsaw is able to present oil to the Schwedt refinery and change provides from Kazakhstan. However what about compensation?
The PCK Raffinerie Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, Germany.
The nationalization of Rosneft’s German property is turning into increasingly more probably, and new alerts from Poland reinforce this impression. The German authorities is working out of time: on March 10, when the subsequent choice on the switch of Rosneft Deutschland below the so-called belief administration of the state expires. Berlin, apparently, not desires to increase this regime launched in September 2022 for six months, as a result of they search a secure, not non permanent, resolution to the destiny of the oil refinery in Schwedt — PCK Raffinerie Schwedt.
Germany and Poland focus on the destiny of the Schwedt refinery
That is precisely the case, though Rosneft has different property in Germany. However on this refinery, the state-owned Russian concern truly owns 54%, and sustaining Moscow’s management over a strategically vital enterprise appears to the German authorities to be an excessive amount of of a danger, particularly in opposition to the background of the rising risk from Russia. In any case, PCK Raffinerie Schwedt offers petroleum merchandise to a major a part of East Germany and, above all, to the capital of the nation, Berlin, with its roughly 4 million inhabitants.
Left: Berlin, February 12, 2024: the brand new Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (left) visits German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Proper, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck in Warsaw on February 13. For a report of his talks there, learn this.
The intention of the German authorities to place an finish to the legally suspended state of the plant has clearly strengthened after the latest elections in Poland. They dropped at energy a pro-European coalition, which German politicians belief rather more than the earlier Polish authorities. Relations between the 2 international locations are at the moment warming quickly, as evidenced by the talks between the brand new Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin on February 12.
Due to this fact, the go to of Vice Chancellor and Minister of Financial system of Germany Robert Habeck to Warsaw the subsequent day, February 13, performed an vital, and maybe decisive function in figuring out the subsequent concrete steps with regard to Rosneft Deutschland.
“Poland has helped quite a bit up to now to supply oil to the east of Germany,” the German minister recalled after the talks and made it clear that within the occasion of the expropriation of Rosneft, the provision of the plant in Schwedt would enhance, for the reason that Polish aspect is able to considerably enhance the pumping of oil via its territory in the direction of Germany from the port of Gdansk. In accordance with the Reuters information company, citing an knowledgeable supply, Warsaw assured Berlin even earlier than Habeck’s arrival that it will have the opportunity, if mandatory, to utterly change the volumes of Kazakh oil at the moment flowing to Schwedt.
Warsaw: Oil from Kazakhstan may be utterly changed
Some explanations are wanted right here. Till 2023, this refinery, constructed six many years in the past within the GDR on the border with Poland, operated solely on oil coming from the USSR after which from Russia through the Druzhba oil pipeline. In response to the full-scale Russian aggression in opposition to Ukraine, the European Union imposed an embargo on Russian oil transported by tankers, however not on provides through the Druzhba pipeline system, since a number of Jap European EU members are nonetheless closely depending on them. Nonetheless, the German authorities determined for its half to utterly abandon Russian oil.
Since final yr, the Schwedt plant has been equipped with oil bought on the world market in 3 ways. From the German Baltic port of Rostock through a longstanding and never very highly effective pipeline that was initially laid down as a backup — via the Polish port of Gdansk, from the place oil is pumped via Poland utilizing the westernmost phase of the Druzhba, and from Kazakhstan in transit via the Russian territory on the identical Druzhba.
Germany strongly emphasizes its want to extend oil purchases in Kazakhstan, cooperation with which is turning into extra intensive. Nonetheless, there are fears that within the occasion of the nationalization of Rosneft’s German property, Moscow will block the Druzhba oil pipeline as a retaliatory measure and thereby [stop] the provision of Kazakh oil.
However now the Polish aspect has assured Berlin, in response to a Reuters supply, that on this occasion it should introduce oil at the moment being pumped via its territory in the direction of Sweden to 2.5 million [metric] tons per yr, and thereby absolutely compensate for provides from Kazakhstan. Their quantity, in response to the company, now ranges from 1.0 to 1.2 million tons. Up to now, about 1.2 million tons of merchandise bought on the world market are passing via Gdansk. Theoretically, it may be oil from Kazakhstan. On the similar time, Warsaw made it clear to the German aspect that so long as Rosneft stays the principle co-owner of PCK Raffinerie Schwedt, even whether it is formal when it comes to exterior administration, there will likely be no enhance in provides via Gdansk.
There isn’t a query of promoting Rosneft Deutschland
It’s noteworthy that articles within the German media about Robert Habeck’s negotiations in Warsaw, and usually about the way forward for Rosneft Deutschland, in impact don’t take into account the choice of Rosneft promoting this firm and its property. That is regardless of the letter with such a proposal, because the financial newspaper Handelsblatt wrote in early February, from the top of the Russian concern Igor Sechin to the German authorities. However Berlin, the publication concluded, “has positioned its guess on expropriation.”
That is in all probability resulting from the truth that the implementation of a deal in Germany that will enable Rosneft and thus Russia which continues the conflict in Ukraine, to earn a multibillion-dollar sum, could be unlawful resulting from worldwide sanctions in opposition to the Russian Federation — or at the least it will look extraordinarily unusual. It is usually probably that below the circumstances of the sanctions regime, there are merely no folks keen to cope with a Russian state-owned firm that falls below this regime, and thereby expose themselves to the chance of secondary penalties.
In any case, the Polish oil firm Orlen, which is taken into account one of the vital probably contenders for Rosneft’s stake in PCK Raffinerie Schwedt, will certainly not go for such a cope with the Russian concern, since gaining management of this refinery would match properly into its technique of worldwide growth. On this context already, Orlen owns a big community of petrol stations in Germany. Furthermore, it’s Orlen which imports oil to Poland via the port of Gdansk. On the similar time, it appears fairly probably that the German authorities will first nationalize Rosneft Deutschland, after which, after a while, promote its stake within the Schwedt refinery to Orlen. That is even though final yr the Bundestag created authorized grounds for such a sale even with out nationalization.
“Daniel Obajtek, the CEO of state power large Orlen – the most important agency in Poland and your complete Central and Jap Europe area – has been dismissed from his place. He was a detailed ally of the previous ruling Regulation and Justice (PiS) celebration and the choice to take away him comes amid a wider overhaul of administration at state-owned corporations below Donald Tusk’s new authorities, which took workplace final month. Obajtek oversaw an formidable growth of Orlen, leading to it final yr rating amongst Europe’s 50 largest companies. However he additionally confronted accusations that he used the agency’s sources to assist PiS, together with throughout its election marketing campaign final yr…Forward of final yr’s parliamentary elections, Orlen was accused of artificially preserving gas costs low to assist PiS’s marketing campaign. The agency denied it, however costs started to rise once more simply days after the elections, wherein PiS misplaced its majority. In accordance with the previous Orlen CEO Jacek Krawiec, the value cuts earlier than the election might have price Orlen a complete of 5.7 billion zloty (€1.31 billion)… The market appeared to react positively to the choice to dismiss Obajtek. At midday, the agency’s shares have been up virtually 3.5% on the day, buying and selling at 64.8 zloty a share.” Learn extra at https://notesfrompoland.com/
Rosneft will have the ability to declare compensation
In accordance with many specialists, the German authorities has created the authorized grounds for the nationalization of Rosneft’s property because of the want to make sure the nation’s power safety again in 2022, making applicable adjustments to nationwide laws. However German legal professionals for Rosneft Deutschland have already said that within the occasion of expropriation they may do their finest to problem its legality.
Nonetheless, they may have a a lot better likelihood of success in getting compensation for Rosneft for nationalized property, legal professionals interviewed by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper imagine. Their statements are given in an article titled “Rosneft is turning into a authorized danger for Germany.”
When Gazprom Germania was nationalized in 2022, Gazprom didn’t get compensation for the misplaced property, for the reason that Russian concern first tried to secretly change house owners, thereby violating German legislation, after which itself deserted its German subsidiary. Within the case of Rosneft Deutschland, there don’t appear to have been such egregious violations thus far, in response to the newspaper’s sources.
Due to this fact, of their opinion, the Russian aspect will have the ability to legally declare compensation within the worldwide arbitration courts and, probably even compensation for damages, and right here the quantities could also be even higher. One other query is whether or not the German state should pay a multibillion-dollar sum to a sanctioned Russian firm proper now, within the midst of the conflict in Ukraine. In any case, court docket proceedings on such points typically final for years. It’s doable that the German authorities is relying on this.
