Tucker Carlson started his interview of President Vladimir Putin with the phrases, “On February 24, 2022, you addressed your nation in your nationwide tackle when the battle in Ukraine began….” Clearly the struggle in Ukraine was the motivation and central matter for the interview. However exactly what Mr. Putin needed to say concerning the Ukraine struggle and its bearing on the longer term has been misplaced amidst frantic cries that Carlson is a “traitor” or “helpful fool” for a lot as talking with the Russian President.
Putin Declares Russia Not a Menace to the EU
The interview comes at a time when close to apocalyptic warnings are being issued by the overseas coverage institution. Ought to Putin prevail in Ukraine, we’re warned, he’ll subsequent occupy close by nations like Poland and the Baltics. Then, the story goes, he’ll march throughout the European continent in a frenzy of conquest, requiring the US to ship US troops to struggle in Europe. The message is, “Be very afraid – and pony up the tax cash for mission Ukraine.”
Is that this all too acquainted name to fund a struggle in a far-away place with no clear significance for the US cheap? Tucker raised this important query in a easy and pointed approach, and Putin’s reply was unambiguous and unequivocal. Right here is the related trade from the transcript (Italics jw):
“Vladimir Putin: …… They (NATO) try to gasoline the Russian menace.
“Tucker Carlson: The menace I believe you have been referring to is Russian invasion of Poland, Latvia – expansionist behaviour. Are you able to think about a situation the place you ship Russian troops to Poland?
“Vladimir Putin: Solely in a single case: if Poland assaults Russia. Why? As a result of we’ve little interest in Poland, Latvia or wherever else. Why would we do this? We merely don’t have any curiosity. It’s simply menace mongering.
“Tucker Carlson: Nicely, the argument, I do know you understand this, is that, nicely, he invaded Ukraine – he has territorial goals throughout the continent. And you might be saying unequivocally, you don’t?
“Vladimir Putin: It’s completely out of the query. You simply don’t must be any type of analyst, it goes towards widespread sense to get entangled in some type of world struggle. And a world struggle will deliver all of humanity to the brink of destruction. It’s apparent.”
Putin Cites Bismarck’s Opinion on “Potentials” of a Nation
Are we to consider what Putin says? There are lots of explanation why we must always. However maybe probably the most highly effective of them is available in one other phase of the interview which at first look is unrelated to Ukraine. In that phase Putin cites Bismarck in reply to an assertion of Carlson’s about China. This reply supplies us a glance into how Putin thinks about worldwide relations. Right here it’s:
“Tucker Carlson: ….And plenty of in America thought that relations between Russia and the US could be nice after the collapse of the Soviet Union, on the core. However the reverse occurred. However you might have by no means defined why you suppose that occurred, besides to say that the West fears a powerful Russia. However we’ve a powerful China that the West doesn’t appear to be very afraid of. What about Russia, what do you suppose satisfied the policymakers to take it down?
“Vladimir Putin: The West is afraid of a powerful China greater than it fears a powerful Russia as a result of Russia has 150 million individuals, and China has a 1.5 billion inhabitants, and its financial system is rising by leaps and bounds – over 5 % a yr, it was much more. However that’s sufficient for China. As Bismark as soon as put it, potentials are most vital. China’s potential is gigantic – it’s the greatest financial system on the planet immediately by way of buying energy parity and the scale of the financial system. It has already overtaken the US, fairly a very long time in the past, and it’s rising at a quick clip.” (In 2023 the US financial system grew at a charge of two.5%; China’s grew at 5.2% of a bigger financial system. JW)
Putin cites Bismarck approvingly for figuring out the “potentials” of countries because the “most vital” issue. And Putin makes use of two parameters to evaluate “potential”: the scale of the financial system and the scale of the inhabitants. These are the 2 pillars on which a rustic’s navy would possibly rests.
What are the potentials of the EU or NATO versus Russia
Let’s apply this pondering to the result of a battle between Russia and the opposite European nations, utilizing the identical standards Putin does. It’s fairly easy. Russia has a inhabitants of ~150 million as Putin says; that of the EU+UK is over 500 million. The PPP-GDP of Russia is ~$5 trillion; that of the EU+ UK is ~$30 trillion. These numbers put Russia in a most unenviable place.
A comparability with the entire of NATO leaves Russia in a good worse place. The inhabitants of NATO is 960 million; over six instances bigger than Russia. NATO’s PPP-GDP is a bit over $50 trillion, 10 instances that of Russia. Furthermore, NATO has a complete of 3.4 million navy personnel; Russia has 1.15 million with a plan to increase to 1.5 million by 2026.
Based mostly on these numbers Russia could be insane to get right into a struggle with the EU nations or with NATO. And no matter one might consider Putin, he isn’t insane. Watch the interview and you will notice a really clever man, fairly measured in his responses. (Until you’re a historical past buff, you would possibly need to skip Putin’s historical past lesson originally and start on the 25 minute mark.)
These numbers defining the navy “potential” not solely present that Russia isn’t any menace to the remainder of Europe. Fairly the opposite. The EU international locations alone or in live performance with the US as NATO are grave threats to Russia. And the file reveals that the menace is actual. The US has pushed NATO eastward; the faux Russian “menace” has been hyped endlessly within the Western press and by most Western politicians. From the Balkans to Afghanistan to Libya and past, NATO has proven that, removed from being a defensive group, it’s an aggressor. And now as within the days of the outdated colonialism, NATO additionally has solid its eye on East Asia and an “Indo-Pacific NATO.”
Removed from being a “menace,” Russia has each purpose to really feel threatened. Backed right into a nook with NATO on its doorstep, it’s no shock that Russia acted to forestall Ukraine from changing into a platform for invasion from the West because it was twice within the 20th Century and because it could possibly be once more as a member of NATO.
