The collapse of the Ukrainian military following the battle of Avdeyevka, and its disorganized retreat, have accelerated Russian navy pondering of how far westward the NATO allies will determine that the Ukrainian statelet will be defended in opposition to the anticipated Russian advance – and how briskly new NATO defences will be created with out the safety of ground-to-air missile batteries like Patriot, long-range artillery just like the M777, and cellular armour just like the Abrams, Bradley, and Caesar: all of them have already been defeated within the east.
In brief, there isn’t any longer a NATO-command line of fortification east of the Polish border which deters the Russian Basic Workers. Additionally, no bunker for the Zelensky authorities and its NATO advisors to really feel safe.
Reducing and pasting from the Russian navy bloggers and the Moscow analytical media, as a handful of US podcasters and substackers are doing as usually as their subscribers require, is the Comfortable-Armchair technique for getting on the reality. Studying the Russian sources straight, with the understanding that they’re reporting what their navy and intelligence sources are saying off the file, remains to be armchair generalship, however much less cozy, extra credible.
Offence is now the order of the day up and down the contact line. The every day bulletin from the Ministry of Protection in Moscow calls this “enhancing the tactical state of affairs” and “taking extra advantageous positions”. Prior to now three days, Monday by way of Wednesday, the Protection Ministry additionally reported the every day casualty fee of the Ukrainian forces at 1,175, 1,065, and 695, respectively; three M777 howitzer hits; and the primary Abrams tank to be destroyed. As a result of this supply is blocked in a number of of the NATO states, the Russian navy bloggers, which reproduce the bulletins together with videoclips and maps, could also be extra accessible; additionally extra swiftly than the US-based podcasters and substackers can sustain.
Moscow sources verify the apparent: the operational goal is to use an increasing number of strain at an increasing number of factors alongside the road, in as many sectors or salients (“instructions” is the Russian time period) as potential concurrently. On the similar time, air assault, plus missiles and drones, are hanging all rear Ukrainian and NATO airfield, street, and rail nodes, ammunition storages, automobile parks, drone manufactories, gas dumps, and different provide infrastructure, in order make reinforcement and redeployment tougher and threatening.
What can’t be seen are the Russian concentrations of forces aimed within the north, centre and south of the battlefield. As a substitute, there may be what one supply calls “an informed guess is that when the primary blow comes, will probably be North, Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov, Poltava, or Centre, Dniepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, or each concurrently.” For timing, the supply provides, “after the Russian election.”
That’s now lower than three weeks away, on March 17. President Vladimir Putin will then reform his new authorities inside 4 to 6 weeks for announcement by early Might. Ministerial appointments delicate to the Basic Workers’s planning are the Protection Minister Sergei Shoigu, who is predicted to stay in place; and the International Minister Sergei Lavrov, who could retire.
Following the decision of French President Emmanuel Macron for the “risk” of French floor pressure deployment to the Ukraine battlefield, and the next clarification by French Protection Minister Sébastien Lecornu, the Russian evaluation has been derisory. “As for Emmanuel Macron’s statements about the potential of sending NATO troops to Ukraine,” replied International Ministry spokesman Maria Zakharova, “I wish to remind you that only a month in the past, the French International Minister denied Paris’s involvement in recruiting mercenaries for the Kiev regime, and referred to as direct proof ‘crude Russian propaganda.’ There’s a robust impression that the French President is, in precept, not conscious of what his subordinates say, or what he says himself. And now I wish to remind Macron of the historical past of France. That’s completely different. In April 1945, Berlin was defended by the French SS division often called Charlemagne, and various others. Additionally they straight defended the Fuhrerbunker — Hitler’s bunker. They had been among the many final to be awarded the Nazi Order of the Knight’s Cross within the Third Reich. The French SS males from Charlemagne turned the final defenders of the Reichstag and the Reich Chancellery. Emmanuel, have you ever determined to prepare the Charlemagne II division to defend Zelensky’s bunker?”
The view in Moscow is that there’s now as a lot indecision, vacillation, and chaos between the Elysée and the Hexagon Balard in Paris as there may be in Washington between the White Home and the Pentagon, over what final stand NATO could make within the Ukraine, and the place to place it — east of Kiev, or east of Lvov and the Polish border area.
The Moscow supply once more: “the NATO fortress and bunker plan for the Ukraine is proving a failure, and the Ukrainians are falling again on the previous Wehrmacht tactic of advert hoc battlegroups with rising percentages of unit leftovers and low-quality conscripts performing as fireplace brigades to plug holes within the traces in order to delay the Russian advances. However what’s the bunker fallback plan alongside what traces – is the plan to attend till the Individuals, French, Germans or Poles present up? That is the stuff of Nazi goals. It’s too late.”
A western navy supply feedback: “I’m not so certain, as among the Russian milbloggers are, that the broad entrance strategy [Russian General Valery] Gerasimov is taking heralds a brand new strategy to fashionable warfare – or operational artwork, in case you like. The push at completely different factors, conserving males and materiel in favour of firepower is being achieved as a lot, or extra out of political issues, which embrace these of a home character (Putin’s public help, home stability); and likewise the navy goal since Day One of many Particular Navy Operation — to attract in and destroy as many and as a lot of the US-NATO manpower and tools within the Ukraine as potential.”
“The Russian ‘retreat’ performed in Fall of 2022 was a part of the plan and struck me as being impressed by the Mongol tactic of attacking, making an enormous present of working away, solely to show to pursue after which destroy the enemy. The Ukrainians and their NATO handlers fell for it hook, line and sinker. Now they don’t have the forces wanted to take care of their fortress technique, not to mention conduct a lot in the way in which of counter-attacks. It was on this trend that Gerasimov gained the higher hand within the two-front warfare – the one on the Ukrainian battlefield and the one on the Russian residence entrance.”
“Deep battle remains to be the Russian doctrine. Its kind and elements could change, however the idea stays the identical. The artwork is in determining the place and when the holes drilled within the different facet’s navy, financial, and political constructions will line up, and current the trail to be exploited by Gerasimov. We are able to wager he’s identified for fairly a while.”
Two translations observe of present Russian navy analyses. The primary is by Boris Rozhin, whose Colonel Cassad Telegram platform is likely one of the main navy blogs in Moscow. The second is by Yevgeny Krutikov who publishes lengthy items in Vzglyad, the semi-official safety evaluation medium in Moscow, and quick items in his Telegram account, Mudraya Ptitsa (“Smart Chicken”).
The interpretation is verbatim and unedited. Maps and illustrations have been added.
Supply: https://t.me/s/boris_rozhin — posted on February 27, 2024 – 20:25. Half II has not been revealed but.
February 27, 2024
The operational disaster of the Armed Forces of the Ukraine – Half 1
By Boris Rozhin (“Colonel Cassad”)The successes of our troops strengthen religion in a collective victory. Nevertheless, it’s essential to soberly assess the three elements that make up the operational state of affairs on the entrance:
— our forces and materiel – the forces and materiel of the enemy;
— the ratio between them;
— the operational atmosphere.
The state of affairs during which the enemy is now on the defensive will be referred to as an operational disaster. For 4 months, the Armed Forces of the Ukraine [VSU is the Russian acronym] command concentrated their reserves in Avdeyevka and Chas Yar, weakening different sectors of the entrance (particularly, Kupyansk and Zaporozhye). Having failed to make sure a vital preponderance of forces, in opposition to the background of a rise within the media significance of Avdeyevka, the enemy misplaced the operational initiative and is now compelled to withdraw to order linesof defence. However they don’t seem to be absolutely operational.
The switch of reserves of the VSU is carried out beneath the rising assaults of our aviation and high-precision assaults on key railway nodes (for instance, Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka). Many VSU items have to be withdrawn for reformation, which is at present unimaginable. Due to this fact, they’re geared up on the expense of mobilized residents with low motivation and fight coaching.
LARGE MAP OF OPERATIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 28, 2024
Supply: Rybar. Click on on unique to enlarge view: https://t.me/s/rybar — February 29 00:42.
By growing an offensive initiative west of Avdeyevka, our items have disadvantaged the enemy of the chance to realize a foothold there. In response to the Bakhmut situation in the summertime of 2023, when attacking close to Kleshcheyevka and Berkhovka, the VSU created a hotbed of pressure, forcing us to carry giant forces in place. Immediately, the Armed Forces of Ukraine wouldn’t have the chance to totally regroup, so they’re withdrawing troops in key operational areas: Zaporozhye (Orekhov) and Slavyansk-Kramatorsk (bearing in mind our positions within the Avdeyevka and Bakhmut preliminary areas).
The brand new [VSU] commander-in-chief, [General Alexander] Syrsky, is confused about precisely the place to pay attention his forces. In situations of simultaneous motion of our formations alongside your complete entrance line: within the Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Lugansk (the Svatovo-Kremennaya line) and Kupyansk operational instructions, the focus of forces and materiel in a selected space will inevitably create situations for a breakthrough of the Ukrainian defence.
The advance of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation within the Maryinsk-Ugledar operational and tactical route and within the space of Novomikhailovka creates situations for squeezing the enemy west of the Marinka-Ugledar freeway and within the route of Kurakhovo, which within the foreseeable future will turn into a key node within the VSU defence on this space. The state of affairs is growing in an identical method within the Konstantinovsky route, the place our troops are having success at Chas Yar, advancing in the intervening time with protection to Ivanovskoye, the biggest defensive position in entrance of the Chas–Yar fortress space.
MAP OF THE CHAS YAR OPERATIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 28, 2024
Supply: Rybar. Click on on the unique to enlarge view: https://t.me/rybar/57610
Regular strain is recorded within the space of Yampolovka and Ternov, the Serebryansky forest, in addition to on the left financial institution of the Seversky Donets, the place an offensive is underway in opposition to Belogorovka as a way to attain Seversk. Positional battles proceed south of Seversk within the Razdolovka–Veseloe strip. Our items are shifting alongside the railway line, though the tactical situations of the terrain aren’t conducive to a fast offensive there. The state of affairs is extra difficult within the Kupyansk route. Nevertheless, regardless of the difficulties of advancing and the altitude variations, we’re managing to include giant enemy forces on each banks of the Oskol.
A probable situation for the event of the state of affairs is that in the course of the coming month the VSU will proceed the gradual withdrawal of troops to new traces alongside a rear echelon from 15 to twenty kilometres again, whereas concurrently making an attempt to interact us in battles in areas the place terrain situations and defensive fortifications will permit us to carry positions: these are Chas Yar–Konstantinovka, the southern approaches to Seversk (Rayaleksandrovsky fortress space), the Marinka– Kurakhovo–Ugledar line (Donetsk route), and Rabodino–Orekhov (Zaporozhye).
In the intervening time of withdrawal from a selected space, the enemy will switch his forces from web site to web site as a way to inflict most injury to our advancing group. The VSU doesn’t take into account some other possibility, for instance, to counterattack, for the reason that focus of troops required for that dangers taking the form of the Avdeyevka situation, with the actual prospect of falling right into a котёл [trap].
Left, Boris Rozhin; proper, Yevgeny Krutikov.
Supply: https://vz.ru/
February 28, 2024
How Russian troops are shifting Ukrainian defenses after
Avdeyevka
By Yevgeny KrutikovThe advance of Russian troops to the West after the liberation of Avdeyevka has not been stopped in any respect. The Armed Forces of Ukraine haven’t been capable of acquire a foothold on any defensive position for a lot of days, and furthermore, this is applicable not solely to the Avdeyevka route. What is occurring on the road of contact within the particular operation zone and what would be the goal of the Russian military within the coming weeks?
After the liberation of Avdeyevka the items of the Russian Armed Forces maintained a excessive fee of advance on this part of the road of contact. The enemy unexpectedly tried to create new traces of defence to the west of the town alongside the Stepovoye–Berdych-Orlovka–Lastochkino–Tonenkoe–Severnoye line. However by Tuesday, February 27, Russian assault items had occupied the primary line (Stepovoye, Lastochkino, Severnoye) and started operations to occupy the second line.
In some cases the enemy merely deserted their positions, unable to face up to the blows of bombs and assault actions. The open areas (fields, forests, and gullies) west of Avdeyevka got here beneath the management of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation nearly with no battle.
There may be a proof for this. Initially, the group of defence on new frontlines is extraordinarily pricey and time–consuming; it requires an enormous quantity of apparatus and specialists, and most significantly, time. It’s exactly this time which the Russian troops are seizing to consolidate their positions, denying them to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and always placing strain on them, primarily with long-range weapons.
The VSU, because it now seems, weren’t ready in any respect for the fast abandonment of Avdeyevka. As well as, evidently the enemy can not stand up to a direct conflict with Russian troops exterior of positions they’ve fortified prematurely. The VSU can cling to long-term fortified areas which have been ready for a very long time, however with the fixed tempo of the Russian offensive, they’re compelled to withdraw even from these positions.
Behind the brand new line of defence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which has developed within the Avdeyevka space in the intervening time (provisionally round Orlovka), an empty area has opened up during which there aren’t any pure obstacles able to supporting new defensive fortifications. There may be nothing like this as much as the subsequent main settlements of the Donbass, primarily Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsky). The enemy has not strengthened the small villages there in any method, pondering it wouldn’t be mandatory.
MAP OF AVDEYEVKA AREA OPERATIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 28, 2024
Supply: Rybar. Click on on unique to enlarge view: https://t.me/rybar/57677
The one limitation on the Russian forces for shifting ahead on this route could be the previous positions of the VSU on the flanks. For instance, Kurakhovo is deliberate to be one other “fortress”, which by the actual fact of its existence creates a flank menace to the advance of the Avdeyevka grouping of the Russian forces.
The state of affairs in one other part of the contact line, west of Artemovsk, is indicative on this regard. The enemy’s positions in entrance of Chasov Yar within the villages of Krasnoe (Ivanovskoye) and Bogdanovka have very robust. However the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation started to maneuver there not head-on, however from the north, pushing by way of and bypassing the fortified areas of the VSU. In consequence, by Tuesday, the assault teams had superior nearly to the centre of the village. On the similar time, a number of heights had been occupied, opening the way in which additional to the west.
This manoeuvre is clearly seen on satellite tv for pc photographs of the world the place the traces of the enemy’s trenches south of Krasnoe are seen. Apparently, the VSU was afraid of the motion of Russian assault plane from this route, from Kleshcheyevka. The ruins of Kleshcheyevka themselves are virtually surrounded in the intervening time, however this route has turn into secondary to motion on Chasov Yar.
The primary districts of Chasov Yar – east of the canal, the place the VSU items are positioned – at the moment are being always shelled by Russian artillery and bombs [ФАБ], which make it unimaginable for the enemy to manoeuvre their reserves and rotate.
The enemy transferred a lot of the reserves accessible at first of February to Kupyansk. In Kiev this stabilization of the entrance close to Kupyansk is taken into account a fantastic achievement. The Kiev command is motivated to hold stubbornly on to the zone round Kupyansk by the conclusion that in the event that they lose this node, that might result in the redeployment of elements of the Russian forces all the way in which as much as Kharkov.
However an important factor that the intelligence and management of the VSU are at present doing is making an attempt to find out the place the brand new primary blow of the Russian offensive will happen after Avdeyevka. The actual fact is that the Russian armed forces at the moment are sustaining an operational tempo alongside your complete line of contact. There is no such thing as a part of the entrance line the place profitable assault operations wouldn’t be famous. This “a number of bites” [множества укусов] technique at present being undertaken by the Russian forces has led to the disorganization of enemy behaviour and the dispersion of its sources.
For instance, the primary assault detachments of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on Tuesday evening already entered the settlement of Terny within the Limansky route and gained a foothold in it. The motion to Terny had not halted even for a day over a number of weeks, remaining within the shadow of the larger-scale occasions within the Avdeyevka route and round Rabocino. However unexpectedly now it has turned out that on this space, items of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have entered fully new positions, threatening to maneuver additional west to the Estuary and looming over the enemy’s Seversk grouping.
In Kiev, there’s a well-founded concern that these new landmark breakthroughs by Russian items could usually result in the collapse of Ukrainian defence and the transition of navy operations to the extra western areas of Ukraine.
Furthermore, nearly your complete line of contact, aside from the Chasov Yar space, is now so fragmented that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have the chance to enter the operational area in a number of instructions without delay. Even the western press is now actively writing that the Russian forces are able to offering assault operations concurrently in two or three areas. Nobody is aware of which one in all them will find yourself being the primary one.
It’s potential that there can be no “primary” route of influence, at the very least within the classical understanding of this idea. The brand new navy actuality additionally supplied by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is a novel tactic: the motion of small assault teams with highly effective help from artillery and heavy aerial bombs. Thus, the occupation of enemy strongholds is ensured, and solely then are giant open areas cleared with the assistance of tanks.
In different phrases, comparatively giant settlements, became strongholds by the enemy, turn into one thing like a common route, a vector of motion. For instance, Pokrovskoye (Krasnoarmeysk) is positioned 40 kilometres west of Avdeyevka. That is clearly the subsequent goal for Russian troops. However the motion in the direction of this objective needn’t be direct, however could also be guided by the requirement to bypass and destroy the enemy’s defence traces.
At Chasov Yar, motion that was not in a straight line turned out to be efficient for the Russian forces, bypassing from the flanks the enemy’s fortified areas south of Krasny. Operations to carry down the enemy are performed in Kupyansk in a straight line, whereas sudden assault actions on the outskirts of this part of the entrance (the identical Terny) result in new threats of the encirclement of the defending items of the VSU.
Maybe within the coming days we’ll see the subsequent offensive operations of the Russian forces based on a linear scheme: the encirclement of Kurakhovo by way of the occupation of Krasnogorovka, entry to the heights south of Chasov Yar, motion to Seversk, entry to the availability traces of Ugledar, forcing the channel in Terny, breaking the enemy’s defences west of Avdeyevka, and way more.
None of those areas would be the “chief” or “primary” one, however every of them will create the preconditions for the additional liberation of the Donbass.
[*] The lead image is reproduced by Boris Rozhin as an instance his battlefield report of February 28, at 19:17, indicating the disorganized retreat of Ukrainian forces west and south alongside the Berdych-Orlovka-Tonenkoe line within the central sector. “Immediately, the enemy has truly misplaced this line. Orlovka is within the strategy of coming beneath the management of Russian troops. Within the subsequent 24 hours, we should always count on the looks of movies with flags in Orlovka. Berdych is subsequent. An advantageous and ready line of defence didn’t final lengthy. The enemy will retreat to the west with subsequent makes an attempt to make use of pure water boundaries and terrain to compensate for the shortage of ready engineering constructions.”
