Armed with a whiteboard and a penchant for grilling company executives throughout congressional hearings, Katie Porter shortly emerged as an apostle for Democrats in Orange County.
However regardless of spending tens of millions on her marketing campaign and having a nationwide profile, she gained reelection in 2022 by solely a sliver. Now, with Porter working for Senate, two prime Democrats — Sen. Dave Min and Joanna Weiss — have emerged to tackle former GOP Assemblyman Scott Baugh in 2024.
For Democrats, each in Orange County and nationally, the stakes are excessive. The forty seventh Congressional District is amongst 4 Orange County-based districts which might be anticipated to be among the many nation’s best within the 2024 election as Republicans and Democrats battle for management of the Home.
“If Democrats can’t preserve this seat, they haven’t any hope of successful the Home majority, as a result of demographically that is precisely the kind of district that’s coming into the Democrats coalition,” mentioned David Wasserman, a congressional forecaster for the nonpartisan Prepare dinner Political Report.
In Porter’s district, which incorporates a big swath of the Orange County coast and Irvine, Democrats have a slight voter registration benefit, however it’s shut sufficient to be a major goal for Republicans in 2024.
Orange County’s transformation right into a extra culturally and economically various area has turned the place Ronald Reagan as soon as mentioned was the place “good Republicans go earlier than they die” right into a political battleground.
In 2018, Democrats, together with Porter, flipped 4 congressional districts in what they celebrated as a “blue wave.” Republicans gained again two of these seats in 2020. The 2022 midterms have been a stalemate.
“Neither Dave Min nor Joanna Weiss is the phenomenon of Katie Porter, not of their persona, and never of their means to lift cash. And so it’s going to take numerous sources on the nationwide chess board coming from the Democrats to make the seat aggressive,” mentioned Jon Fleischman, a former state GOP govt director and a political strategist.
For months, Democrats debated over which candidate has the perfect probability to complete within the prime two within the March main and beat Baugh within the November election.
Min’s supporters cite his attraction with Asian People, an impactful group of swing voters, his assist from police unions and his legislative file supporting abortion rights, gun management and environmental protections — stands anticipated to attract Democrats to the polls.
Weiss has grown a big base of assist from anti-Trump suburban ladies who argue she is the stronger candidate on progressive points similar to abortion and is targeted on financial and environmental points which might be pivotal to Orange County voters. The assist of each teams is anticipated to be key to preserving a Democrat within the seat.
Min argues that almost all feminine voters over the age of 30 who rank abortion as a prime subject are already aligned with Democrats, noting “that isn’t a swing vote at this level.”
Each candidates have frolicked — and cash — interesting to Democrats by touting their progressive agendas. Min has raised about $1.2 million this cycle, whereas Weiss has $1.2 million together with $225,000 that she lent her marketing campaign. The candidates have roughly $825,000 and $832,000 money available, respectively, in keeping with marketing campaign finance disclosure stories submitted in September.
Min, who has secured endorsements from the California Democratic Social gathering and Porter, this month despatched a mailer to voters, together with independents, citing his file of defending abortion rights, pushing for more durable gun legal guidelines and laws he’s written in an effort to finish offshore drilling.
“Those that know CA-47 greatest … have overwhelmingly endorsed Dave Min due to his observe file of successful robust elections and standing up for the values of Orange County, together with defending reproductive rights, advocating for more durable gun legal guidelines, working to finish offshore oil drilling, and combating to guard survivors of intercourse abuse and home violence,” Dan Driscoll, Min’s marketing campaign supervisor, mentioned in an announcement to The Occasions.
Early this month, he dropped his first commercial within the race, a six-figure video purchase that may run on digital and cable platforms titled “United” and boasting the message that “California Democrats are united behind one candidate: Dave Min.”
Weiss, who based Ladies for American Values and Ethics (WAVE), a fundraising and volunteer group that goals to advance progressive candidates, has picked up endorsements from a number of California representatives together with Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) and Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose), an in depth ally of former Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco).
Weiss’ marketing campaign has pounced on Min’s 2023 DUI arrest as a essential weak point that Baugh may exploit within the common election. Min was arrested final Could and charged with misdemeanor driving below the affect after a California Freeway Patrol officer witnessed him working a crimson mild whereas driving a state-owned automobile just some miles from the Capitol.
He apologized, saying he accepted “full accountability” and that there was “no excuse” for his actions. Simply hours after information of Min’s arrest broke, the California Republican Social gathering distributed an e-mail calling him “DUI Dave” and saying he had “put lives in danger when he made the reckless choice to drive drunk.”
Min’s arrest was sufficient to sway Orange County Supervisor Katrina Foley. Foley, a Democrat, to endorse Weiss.
“There’s no cause to drive drunk. That’s a nasty judgment name and that’s regarding,” she mentioned. “That is going to get utilized by Republicans. They’re going to make use of it in opposition to him and he gained’t have the ability to win the overall.”
The battle took a tense activate Thursday, when Weiss’ marketing campaign launched an advert criticizing Min for allegedly accepting cash from particular pursuits and for his DUI. The advert included dashcam footage from the police patrol automobile that confirmed Min swaying because the officer conducts a subject sobriety check.
“It’s essential that voters in our group perceive their selection on this election. Dave Min can’t be trusted and he is a large legal responsibility for Democrats on this must-win race to flip the Home,” Weiss’ marketing campaign supervisor Emma Weinert mentioned.
Min responded by remarking on X, previously Twitter, that “it’s so disappointing to see Joanna Weiss run such a unfavorable marketing campaign.”
Min’s camp argues that Weiss, a first-time candidate, doesn’t have the identify recognition wanted to win such a aggressive seat.
Questions have additionally been raised in regards to the supply of cash Weiss has used to assist her marketing campaign. An article printed by the Day by day Beast this month suggests funds Weiss has put into the marketing campaign is revenue earned by her husband Jason Weiss, who makes a speciality of labor and employment legislation on the agency Sheppard Mullin and has defended the Roman Catholic Diocese of Orange in intercourse abuse lawsuits.
Weiss referred to as the story “a determined assault.”
“I’m the No. 1 lady fundraiser within the nation who isn’t an incumbent within the 2024 cycle,” she mentioned. “I feel the article unfairly tried to focus on the purported self-funding, however we’ve had males fully self-fund their campaigns right here in Orange County and nobody requested them the place their cash got here from.”
As Min and Weiss duke it out, Baugh has been reaching out to swing voters and amassing a $1.5-million battle chest, in keeping with marketing campaign finance disclosures.
To Baugh, the present panorama appears rather more favorable to Republicans than in 2022 when he went up in opposition to Porter, an incumbent who outspent him by tens of millions. For now, Min and Weiss are spending their cash combating one another.
“Whoever emerges from the first will probably be just a little damaged, just a little bloodied up,” Baugh mentioned.
